How much longer can PH last?
In 1977, for the first time in the history of independent India, the Congress party lost national elections called in the wake of the end of the Emergency declared by Indira Gandhi in 1975. The anger against the suppression of freedoms and the excesses of the authorities under the Congress brought a ragtag of opposition parties into power whose only real claim to fame was that they were not the Congress. It took only 3 years for the alliance to fall apart and the Congress to return to power with a thumping majority.
Without belabouring the point too much, is Malaysia headed the same way? The only real reason for Pakatan Harapan (PH) to win the 2018 election was the Asal Bukan UMNO (ABU) factor. As long as they were strongly against corruption and committed to economic reform, they were seen to be better than the shocking state of Barisan Nasional (BN) then, and duly won.
The problems began immediately. BN supporters who had voted PH purely as a protest against corruption did not want any changes to the status quo on race and religious entitlements. Diehard opposition supporters who finally won wanted nothing less than a wholesale demolition of past policies and an institution of a meritocratic system based on equality.
As might have been prophesised, almost two years on and PH has managed to seriously upset both sides. Dr. Mahathir, so unused to compromise was always unlikely to balance Malay unease at the rise of minority voices in government with the emboldened voices of his coalition partners for structural and institutional change.
The ICERD debacle, the mess that is the education ministry, the growing prominence of unelected cronies from the past, lack of progress on PH manifesto promises, the anemic stock market and the weird Jawi controversy are just a few examples of a government ill at ease with itself.
Dr. M himself seems but a pale shadow of his former self. The bumbling response to the Zakir Naik issue which exposed his blatant hypocrisy in refusing to deport Zakir Naik to India despite his disparagement of local Chinese and Indians while criticizing India for its treatment of its own minorities just because they were Muslims did not help his image with either side of the electorate.
His stubborn refusal to set a firm date for his departure and mixed messaging from his colleagues reinforces the growing perception of a capricious, rudderless government self-absorbed in its own petty politicking and sex scandals, only interested in jockeying for power.
No surprise then that PH has now lost a string of by elections in every part of the country to an opposition that is barely credible and still helmed by the man most responsible for the BN defeat of 2018. Internal contradictions, thirst for positions, terrible communications and barely concealed joy with the trappings of power in PH are making for an ugly spectacle.
People can be forgiven then for feeling a growing sense of dismay with the state of the nation and the ability of this motley crew to survive 5 years in power. If they are to avoid repeating India’s 1977-80 story, PH needs to act fast.
The need is to set an early date for Anwar to take over, agree on a common minimum programme for governance that assuages the social concerns of the majority and addresses the economic concerns of the minorities and understand that education is at the intersection of the two that impacts voters disproportionately.
Most importantly, master the art of communication. All is not yet lost if PH can publicise their coalition to-do list to ensure accountability, regularly inform the public of progress, set the national agenda for reform and change the national mood towards a sense of shared prosperity.
The alternative, of an unrepentant, unreformed UMNO coming back to power due to mere ineptness may be too depressing to endure.
Without belabouring the point too much, is Malaysia headed the same way? The only real reason for Pakatan Harapan (PH) to win the 2018 election was the Asal Bukan UMNO (ABU) factor. As long as they were strongly against corruption and committed to economic reform, they were seen to be better than the shocking state of Barisan Nasional (BN) then, and duly won.
The problems began immediately. BN supporters who had voted PH purely as a protest against corruption did not want any changes to the status quo on race and religious entitlements. Diehard opposition supporters who finally won wanted nothing less than a wholesale demolition of past policies and an institution of a meritocratic system based on equality.
As might have been prophesised, almost two years on and PH has managed to seriously upset both sides. Dr. Mahathir, so unused to compromise was always unlikely to balance Malay unease at the rise of minority voices in government with the emboldened voices of his coalition partners for structural and institutional change.
The ICERD debacle, the mess that is the education ministry, the growing prominence of unelected cronies from the past, lack of progress on PH manifesto promises, the anemic stock market and the weird Jawi controversy are just a few examples of a government ill at ease with itself.
Dr. M himself seems but a pale shadow of his former self. The bumbling response to the Zakir Naik issue which exposed his blatant hypocrisy in refusing to deport Zakir Naik to India despite his disparagement of local Chinese and Indians while criticizing India for its treatment of its own minorities just because they were Muslims did not help his image with either side of the electorate.
His stubborn refusal to set a firm date for his departure and mixed messaging from his colleagues reinforces the growing perception of a capricious, rudderless government self-absorbed in its own petty politicking and sex scandals, only interested in jockeying for power.
No surprise then that PH has now lost a string of by elections in every part of the country to an opposition that is barely credible and still helmed by the man most responsible for the BN defeat of 2018. Internal contradictions, thirst for positions, terrible communications and barely concealed joy with the trappings of power in PH are making for an ugly spectacle.
People can be forgiven then for feeling a growing sense of dismay with the state of the nation and the ability of this motley crew to survive 5 years in power. If they are to avoid repeating India’s 1977-80 story, PH needs to act fast.
The need is to set an early date for Anwar to take over, agree on a common minimum programme for governance that assuages the social concerns of the majority and addresses the economic concerns of the minorities and understand that education is at the intersection of the two that impacts voters disproportionately.
Most importantly, master the art of communication. All is not yet lost if PH can publicise their coalition to-do list to ensure accountability, regularly inform the public of progress, set the national agenda for reform and change the national mood towards a sense of shared prosperity.
The alternative, of an unrepentant, unreformed UMNO coming back to power due to mere ineptness may be too depressing to endure.
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