Change is already here

It’s almost a palpable sense of fear on one side, and a cautious albeit optimistic sense of hope on the other. While most analysts and the local mainstream media have predicted a routine win for BN, as we get closer to polling day the straws in the wind are telling a different story.

No doubt it is the injection of ex BN stalwarts like Dr. Mahathir, Muhyuddin Yassin and Shafie Apdal that is making the decisive difference to the opposition’s appeal to the electorate. In a sense, PH without them has been unable to increase its attractiveness beyond its committed base over the last five years, and the result of GE 14 in their absence might have been what has been predicted by the experts.

But given that they had already won the popular vote in GE 13, the addition of these Malay leaders from the heartlands of Kedah and Johor, and to a lesser extent in Sabah will go a long way in expanding PH’s vote count in these states. A number of competitive fronts have opened up in areas that BN considered safe in the past, and they are having to expend resources defending these at the expense of other, more critical battles.

Many commentators have remarked on the subdued tone of the campaign, but it seems to be more because the number of fence sitters this time around are lower than in the past. It appears that a lot of people have made up their mind a long time ago and the energy on display is really only visible on the PH side. Momentum drives campaigns and PH is making all the news at the moment.

Largely staying on their twin pronged messaging on corruption and the economy is resonating well for PH campaigners, but BN leaders seem short of any new ideas beyond promises of freebies. There is a certain edge of desperation in the attempt to throw everything at the problem in the hope of making something stick. From Dr. Mahathir’s age, calling his backers recycled and veterans, race baiting using DAP, fear mongering on the economic future under the opposition and to wheeling out the Air Asia boss, there is no one cohesive message as to why they should be chosen.

Of course, the odds are heavily stacked against change structurally after 60 years of one party rule. Business, the bureaucracy and habitual recipients of government largesse are on the side of continuity and political stability. So, it may be that the barriers put up by them against change in the form of new laws, election rules, cash donations etc. may prove to be one too many for PH to form the next federal government.

But even if PH does not cross the 112 seats mark, it will surely expand their share of the popular vote beyond the 52% of GE 13. That will have its own implication for the legitimacy and stability of the incumbent government.

What this means is that the real work of change has already begun, either with a new government or a weakened returning government that knows that they have no choice but to change radically to stay relevant in the future.

What is much more crucial now is defining the change that we want to see and holding the next government accountable for it.

Inclusive, fair, transparent and accountable governance should not be an aspiration but the baseline with which to assess political leadership. Here’s hoping the outcome of this GE gets us there.

Selamat Mengundi.